Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,176$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(275 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,110.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 36.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,110.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $87$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(6.83 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 35.9)}}\) (asimptote \(103.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $363$ on 2020-05-09

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $30,251$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(5.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,433.8}{1 + 10^{-0.066 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,433.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,830$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(196 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,818.7}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,818.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,021$ on 2020-05-09

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $218,268$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{213,906.3}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.4)}}\) (asimptote \(213,906.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $30,395$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,715.1}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(29,715.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $84,842$ on 2020-05-09

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,309,550$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(8.94 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,354,523.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,354,523.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $78,795$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{81,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 40.1)}}\) (asimptote \(81,514.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,018,221$ on 2020-05-09

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $216,525$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{226,991.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(226,991.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $31,662$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{31,868.8}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(31,868.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $183,862$ on 2020-05-09

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,921$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,270.7}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,270.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,220$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(194 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,350.6}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,350.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,730$ on 2020-05-09

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $171,324$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.52 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{164,903.4}{1 + 10^{-0.061 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(164,903.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,549$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(710 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,627.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(7,627.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,475$ on 2020-05-09

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Iceland recovered 98%
Luxembourg recovered 92%
New Zealand recovered 89%
Thailand recovered 89%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Austria recovered 86%
Switzerland recovered 86%
Australia recovered 86%
Malta recovered 84%
Taiwan* recovered 77%
Germany recovered 72%
Croatia recovered 71%
Niger recovered 70%
Andorra recovered 68%
Uzbekistan recovered 64%
Tunisia recovered 59%
Djibouti recovered 58%
North Macedonia recovered 57%
Denmark recovered 56%
Israel recovered 51%
Slovakia recovered 50%
Costa Rica recovered 48%
Lithuania recovered 46%
Turkey recovered 46%
Malaysia recovered 40%
Spain recovered 38%
Czechia recovered 38%
Cuba recovered 36%
Japan recovered 23%
Italy recovered 22%
Georgia recovered 13%
Serbia recovered 9%
Hungary recovered 7%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,990$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(4.86 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,430.4}{1 + 10^{-0.092 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,430.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(1.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,410.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 28.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,410.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-05-09

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,801$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(396 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,801.9}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 29.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,801.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 22.8)}}\) (asimptote \(10.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18$ on 2020-05-09

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,877$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(697 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,726.1}{1 + 10^{-0.077 (t - 30.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,726.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $101$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(16.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97.6}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 26.7)}}\) (asimptote \(97.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $226$ on 2020-05-09

New Zealand⮸

Population $4,822,233$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,494$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(309 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(24.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,470.2}{1 + 10^{-0.100 (t - 26.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,470.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-05-09

Best fit exponential: \(3.23 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20.9}{1 + 10^{-0.099 (t - 20.5)}}\) (asimptote \(20.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $102$ on 2020-05-09